Many people in Somaliland believe that the United States, under Donald Trump’s potential return to the presidency, could become the first nation to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state.
Somaliland declared independence 33 years ago following Somalia’s descent into civil war and has since operated as a de facto nation.
“Donald is our savior. He’s wise and practical. God bless America,” says Aisha Ismail, a university student in Somaliland’s capital, Hargeisa, expressing excitement at the prospect.
In Mogadishu, however, the idea of Somaliland’s independence remains unacceptable. “I doubt Donald Trump even knows where Somaliland is,” says Abdi Mohamud, a data analyst in the Somali capital, expressing frustration over the growing attention to Somaliland’s recognition.
The possibility of US recognition isn’t entirely far-fetched. Prominent Republicans, like Congressman Scott Perry, recently introduced a bill proposing formal recognition of Somaliland. Additionally, a 2023 report by the conservative Heritage Foundation outlined a roadmap for a second Trump presidency, suggesting that Somaliland’s recognition could counterbalance the US’s weakening influence in Djibouti.
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However, Africa receives minimal attention in the 900-page plan, and Trump has already distanced himself from parts of the document, leaving uncertainty about whether Somaliland’s recognition would be prioritized.
The US has, however, begun shifting away from its long-standing “one-track” Somalia policy, which focused exclusively on Mogadishu. This change reflects frustrations over decades of costly US involvement in Somalia, including the infamous “Black Hawk Down” battle in 1993, which resulted in significant American casualties.
Somali officials warn that recognizing Somaliland’s independence would violate Somalia’s sovereignty and risk destabilizing the region. “It would set a dangerous precedent for separatist movements worldwide,” says Somali State Minister for Foreign Affairs Ali Omar Balcad.
Balcad also voiced concerns about a potential repeat of Trump’s earlier decision to withdraw most US troops from Somalia, which had been helping to combat the al-Qaeda-linked group al-Shabab. Under President Joe Biden, about 500 US troops have returned to support Somali forces, including the elite Danab unit, in their fight against the militant group.
While the debate over Somaliland’s recognition continues, the implications for both Somalia and the broader region remain significant.
