International weather experts have revised their forecasts for the formation and intensity of La Niña, indicating that southern Africa may not experience the expected levels of rainfall.
Following last summer’s El Niño, which led to severe droughts and significant crop failures, there had been optimism that La Niña would follow, bringing much-needed rain. However, recent updates have dampened those hopes.
In its latest bi-weekly report, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology warned about the reduced likelihood of La Niña developing in 2024, raising concerns over another challenging season for summer grain crops in southern Africa. The report stated:
“…the chance of a La Niña event developing in the coming months has decreased compared to previous outlooks.”
Should La Niña occur, it is predicted to be weak and short-lived, with all models suggesting a return to neutral conditions by February.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate phenomenon that influences global weather patterns. Currently, ENSO is in a neutral phase. The El Niño phase, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, typically leads to increased rainfall in some regions, such as the western coast of South America, while causing droughts in areas like southern Africa.
Conversely, La Niña is marked by cooler ocean temperatures in the same region, often resulting in wetter conditions for southern Africa and drier weather in South America. During the neutral phase, ocean temperatures and weather patterns are more stable, without significant fluctuations.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicated that if La Niña does form, its effects may be minimal and could fade by February.
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Other global forecasting agencies are also adjusting their expectations for La Niña. A recent report from a U.S. government forecaster suggested that the chances of La Niña developing have decreased, and if it does, it may persist only until March.
A weak La Niña or a summer characterized by neutral conditions does not guarantee another drought for the region.